ON MAY 10TH, ACCORDING TO DATA FROM THE CHINA FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING CENTER, THE CENTRAL PARITY RATE OF THE CHINESE YUAN AGAINST THE US DOLLAR WAS 6.4425, AN INCREASE OF 253 POINTS. THE PREVIOUS TRADING DAY'S CENTRAL PARITY RATE WAS 6.4678, AND THE ONSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED AT 6.4589 ON THE PREVIOUS TRADING DAY.OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS, THE EXCHANGE RATE OF THE CHINESE YUAN AGAINST THE US DOLLAR HAS DRAWN A "HEARTBEAT CURVE". THE US DOLLAR INDEX SERVES AS A KEY INFLUENCING FACTOR. THE US DOLLAR INDEX "TOOK OFF" IN LATE FEBRUARY, RISING FROM A PEAK OF 90 TO ABOVE 93, BUT HAS EXPERIENCED A "DECLINE" SINCE APRIL, CURRENTLY FALLING BELOW THE 91 LEVEL.ACCORDING TO DATA FROM THE STATE ADMINISTRATION OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE, AS OF THE END OF APRIL 2021, CHINA'S FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES AMOUNTED TO $3198.2 BILLION, AN INCREASE OF $28.2 BILLION OR 0.89% FROM THE END OF MARCH. WANG CHUNYING, DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE STATE ADMINISTRATION OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND SPOKESMAN, INTERPRETED THAT, IN THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKET, INFLUENCED BY THE COVID-19 AND VACCINE PROGRESS, MONETARY POLICY EXPECTATIONS OF MAJOR COUNTRIES, MACROECONOMIC DATA AND OTHER FACTORS, NON US DOLLAR CURRENCIES ROSE AGAINST THE US DOLLAR, AND THE PRICES OF FINANCIAL ASSETS IN MAJOR COUNTRIES ROSE AS A WHOLE. THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES ARE DENOMINATED IN US DOLLARS, AND THE COMBINED EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE CONVERSION AND ASSET PRICE CHANGES HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN THE SCALE OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES IN THE CURRENT MONTH.WANG CHUNYING SAID THAT THE CURRENT COVID-19 IS STILL SPREADING OVERSEAS, THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS STILL UNSTABLE AND UNBALANCED, AND THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKET STILL FACES MANY UNCERTAINTIES. BUT SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR, CHINA'S ECONOMY HAS STARTED WELL, WITH NEW ACHIEVEMENTS IN HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT. THE ELASTICITY OF THE RMB EXCHANGE RATE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE, WHICH IS CONDUCIVE TO MAINTAINING BASIC STABILITY IN THE SCALE OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES.WEN BIN, CHIEF RESEARCHER OF CHINA MINSHENG BANK, TOLD THE CHINA NEWS SERVICE WEBSITE THAT CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY HAS ACHIEVED SIGNIFICANT RESULTS, WITH THE ECONOMY CONTINUING TO REMAIN IN THE EXPANSION ZONE. RECENTLY, CONSUMPTION RECOVERY HAS SHOWN AN ACCELERATING TREND, AND STRONG EXPORTS HAVE LED TO IMPROVED INVESTMENT IN THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY. THE ELASTICITY OF THE RMB EXCHANGE RATE CONTINUES TO INCREASE, AND RMB ASSETS HAVE GREAT ATTRACTIVENESS. THESE POSITIVE FACTORS PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR MAINTAINING STABLE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES.        FOR THE FUTURE TREND OF THE RMB EXCHANGE RATE, THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC RESEARCH CENTER OF PEKING UNIVERSITY RECENTLY RELEASED A REPORT PREDICTING THAT THE RMB EXCHANGE RATE WILL TEND TO FLUCTUATE AND APPRECIATE IN MAY, FLUCTUATING WIDELY IN BOTH DIRECTIONS BETWEEN 6.45 YUAN AND 6.60 YUAN.THE REPORT STATED THAT THE OVERALL TREND OF THE RMB EXCHANGE RATE IN APRIL SHOWED A FLUCTUATING UPWARD TREND, AND THE SUPPORT OF ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS, FLUCTUATIONS IN THE US DOLLAR INDEX, AND CONTINUED TENSION IN SINO FOREIGN RELATIONS WERE THE MAIN FACTORS AFFECTING THE TREND OF THE RMB EXCHANGE RATE THIS MONTH. IT IS EXPECTED THAT AS CHINA'S ECONOMY RECOVERS STEADILY IN MAY 2021, ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT FOR THE TREND OF THE RMB. HOWEVER, AS THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE TENSE, THE US DOLLAR INDEX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VOLATILE, AND THE SITUATION OF PREVENTION AND CONTROL OF THE COVID-19 IN INDIA WILL BE SEVERE, WHICH WILL PUT PRESSURE ON THE RMB EXCHANGE RATE.ACCORDING TO A RESEARCH REPORT BY ZHESHANG SECURITIES, THE EXPECTED FLUCTUATION RANGE OF THE RMB/USD EXCHANGE RATE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR IS 6.5-6.9, INDICATING RELATIVELY GREATER DEPRECIATION PRESSURE. HOWEVER, THE INCREASE IN EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IS BENEFICIAL FOR DOMESTIC POLICY SPACE, AND THE TWO-WAY FLOATING OF THE RMB EXCHANGE RATE HAS BECOME THE NORM, WHICH CAN BETTER PLAY ITS ROLE AS AN AUTOMATIC STABILIZER OF MACROECONOMIC AND INTERNATIONAL BALANCE OF PAYMENTS. AT THE SAME TIME, WE WILL NOT CHANGE OUR JUDGMENT ON THE APPRECIATION OF THE RMB EXCHANGE RATE IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM. IN THE NEXT 8-10 YEARS, THE US DOLLAR WILL EXPERIENCE A MAJOR CYCLE OF DECLINE, AND THE RMB EXCHANGE RATE WILL MOVE OUT OF A DETERMINISTIC APPRECIATION TREND. (ZHONGXIN JINGWEI APP)