IN 2021, THE TREND OF INTERNATIONAL GOLD PRICES SURPRISED MOST INVESTMENT INSTITUTIONS. IN THE CONTEXT OF THE UPS AND DOWNS OF THE COVID-19, THE EASING OF GLOBAL MONETARY POLICY, AND RISING INFLATION, GOLD, AS AN INVESTMENT HAVEN, WAS NOT AS POPULAR AS EXPECTED. INSTEAD, ITS FUTURES PRICES EXPERIENCED THEIR FIRST ANNUAL DECLINE IN THREE YEARS. LOOKING AHEAD TO 2022, MARKET PARTICIPANTS' EXPECTATIONS FOR GOLD PRICES ARE CLEARLY DIVIDED, BUT MOST PEOPLE BELIEVE THAT THE MARKET IS FACING MORE VARIABLES AND MAY EXPERIENCE FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS.MOST INDUSTRY INSTITUTIONS HAVE PREDICTED THAT THE INTERNATIONAL GOLD PRICE WILL REACH $2000 PER OUNCE IN 2021. THIS YEAR, THE GOLD PRICE BEGAN TO DECLINE STEADILY, FALLING BELOW $1700 PER OUNCE IN THE FIRST QUARTER, REBOUNDING SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SECOND QUARTER BEFORE FALLING BACK, AND THEN FLUCTUATING AT THE $1800 LEVEL THEREAFTER. ON DECEMBER 31, 2021, THE MAIN GOLD FUTURES CONTRACT ON THE NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE CLOSED AT $1828.6 PER OUNCE, DOWN ABOUT 3.5% FROM THE END OF 2020.SOME ANALYSTS POINTED OUT THAT THE PROMOTION OF THE COVID-19 VACCINE IN 2021 WILL BOOST CONFIDENCE IN THE WORLD ECONOMIC RECOVERY, BOOST INVESTORS' RISK APPETITE, LEAD TO A DECLINE IN THE PROPORTION OF GOLD IN EACH PORTFOLIO, AND CONTINUE TO PUT PRESSURE ON GOLD PRICES.THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MARKET PARTICIPANTS REGARDING THE TREND OF GOLD PRICES IN 2022. THEY BELIEVE THAT FACTORS SUCH AS GLOBAL MONETARY POLICY, INFLATION LEVELS, RECOVERY LEVELS, AND EPIDEMIC CONDITIONS WILL ALL AFFECT THE TREND OF GOLD PRICES. HOWEVER, THESE FACTORS ARE INTERRELATED AND HIGHLY VARIABLE, WHICH MAY EXACERBATE THE VOLATILITY OF GOLD PRICES.FIRSTLY, TIGHTENING MONETARY POLICIES IN DEVELOPED ECONOMIES WILL PUT PRESSURE ON GOLD PRICES. THE FEDERAL RESERVE OF THE UNITED STATES ANNOUNCED IN DECEMBER 2021 THAT IT WILL ACCELERATE THE REDUCTION OF ASSET PURCHASES AND CLEARLY SIGNAL A RATE HIKE IN 2022; THE BANK OF ENGLAND, ALSO KNOWN AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND, ANNOUNCED AN INCREASE IN BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES IN THE SAME MONTH, BECOMING THE FIRST MAJOR CENTRAL BANK IN THE WORLD TO RAISE INTEREST RATES SINCE THE OUTBREAK OF THE PANDEMIC. ANZ BANK PREDICTS THAT AS MAJOR ECONOMIES BEGIN TO WITHDRAW FROM MONETARY EASING AND ECONOMIC STIMULUS PLANS, GOLD PRICES WILL LOSE SOME OF THEIR SUPPORT IN 2022, WITH A TREND EXPECTED TO BE STRONG FIRST AND THEN WEAK, WITH AN AVERAGE ANNUAL PRICE OF AROUND $1725 PER OUNCE.SECONDLY, MAINTAINING HIGH INFLATION MAY INCREASE EXPECTATIONS FOR GOLD PRICES. AVI HAMBRO, A SENIOR EXECUTIVE AT ASSET MANAGEMENT GIANT BLACKROCK, BELIEVES THAT THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR AFFECTING GOLD PRICES IS THE REAL INTEREST RATE. BASED ON CURRENT ASSESSMENTS, INFLATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT 2022. IF THE TREND EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS, REAL INTEREST RATES WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY RISE, AND MAY EVEN DECLINE, FURTHER HIGHLIGHTING THE INVESTMENT VALUE OF GOLD.ACCORDING TO RESEARCH DATA FROM THE WORLD GOLD COUNCIL, GOLD PRICES TEND TO PERFORM STRONGLY DURING PERIODS OF INFLATION EXCEEDING 5%, AND EVEN WHEN INFLATION IS IN THE RANGE OF 2% TO 5%, INVESTING IN GOLD IS EXPECTED TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT RETURNS.DEUTSCHE BANK PREDICTS THAT THE CURRENT INFLATION RATES IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE EUROZONE HAVE EXCEEDED OR ARE CLOSE TO 5%, WITH NO SIGNS OF EASING IN THE SHORT TERM. GOLD PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO REGAIN THEIR STRENGTH IN 2022. SOCIETE GENERALE BELIEVES THAT GOLD PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO SURPASS $1900 PER OUNCE IN 2022.ONCE AGAIN, THE IMPACT OF THE EPIDEMIC ON ECONOMIC RECOVERY EXPECTATIONS HAS INTENSIFIED THE "SEESAW EFFECT" BETWEEN STOCK PRICES AND GOLD PRICES. SOME MARKET ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN STOCK MARKETS HAVE HIT NEW HIGHS FREQUENTLY IN THE PAST YEAR, FACING MULTIPLE PRESSURES SUCH AS SELF ADJUSTMENT DEMAND, MARKET LIQUIDITY TIGHTENING, AND THE ACCELERATED SPREAD OF THE MUTANT COVID-19 OMIKRON STRAIN. ONCE A STOCK MARKET SHOCK TRIGGERS RISK AVERSION, INVESTORS ARE EXPECTED TO FLOCK TO THE GOLD MARKET. DANISH BANK SAXO BANK BELIEVES THAT THE MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN 2022 ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A BULL MARKET IN GOLD.THE WORLD GOLD COUNCIL PREDICTS THAT UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF GLOBAL MONETARY POLICY AND INFLATION TRENDS, THE GOLD MARKET WILL MAINTAIN A VOLATILE TREND IN 2022, WITH FREQUENT CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS OF CORRECTIONS AND INCREASES.