[RUIJIAN] CHANG XIUZE: THE BACKGROUND OF CHINA'S THREE TYPES OF ECONOMIC TRENDS - THE THREE MAJOR GLOBAL TRENDS AND THEIR GAMES
THE CHINESE ECONOMY IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A HISTORIC PROCESS OF CHANGE. THE CHINESE ECONOMY HAS ENTERED A NEW STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT, MARKED BY THE START OF THE "NEW JOURNEY" TO ACHIEVE THE SECOND CENTENARY GOAL OF BUILDING A SOCIALIST MODERNIZED STRONG COUNTRY IN ALL RESPECTS IN 2022 (AS A COMPLETE YEAR). IN CONTEMPORARY CHINA, THE COMPLETE ECONOMY INCLUDES THREE MAJOR SYSTEMS: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC REFORM, AND ECONOMIC OPENING. IN LINE WITH THE NEW STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT, THE CHINESE ECONOMY IS BOUND TO EXHIBIT THREE MAJOR TRENDS, NAMELY: THE TREND OF PEOPLE'S WEALTH ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SYSTEM, THE TREND OF FACTOR ORIENTED REFORM IN THE ECONOMIC REFORM SYSTEM, AND THE TREND OF INSTITUTIONAL OPENNESS IN THE ECONOMIC OPENING SYSTEM. PROFESSOR CHANG XIUZE SUMMARIZED THE RESEARCH ON THESE THREE TRENDS AS THE "THREE TYPES OF CHINESE ECONOMIC TRENDS THEORY". THE FOLLOWING IS PROFESSOR CHANG'S NEW WORK.THIS ARTICLE IS THE INTRODUCTION TO "THE THREE TYPES OF TRENDS IN THE CHINESE ECONOMY" BY CHANG XIUZE, A CONSULTANT AT PANGU THINK TANK, MEMBER OF THE 30 PERSON FORUM ON AGING SOCIETY, AND PROFESSOR AT THE CHINA INSTITUTE OF MACROECONOMICS.”THE TREND OF THREE TYPES OF CHINESE ECONOMY IS UNDOUBTEDLY A PROMINENT FEATURE OF CHINA'S ECONOMY ENTERING A NEW STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT, BUT FROM A BROADER PERSPECTIVE, IT HAS A DEEPER BACKGROUND.IN RECENT YEARS, THE JUDGMENTAL ADMONITION OF "UNPRECEDENTED CHANGES IN A CENTURY" HAS BEEN WIDELY SPREAD. FIVE YEARS AGO, THE AUTHOR HAD SOME INSIGHTS ON THIS AND IN 2017, IN MY BOOK "THE WORLD'S THREE MAJOR TRENDS AND CHINA'S MIXED OWNERSHIP ECONOMY: A CORRELATION STUDY FROM A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE," [1] EXPLORED THE BACKGROUND OF CHINA'S DEVELOPMENT AND REFORM FROM A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE. FIVE YEARS HAVE PASSED, AND THERE HAVE BEEN GREATER CHANGES IN THE WORLD ORDER THAT HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN IN A CENTURY. THE THREE MAJOR TRENDS MENTIONED EARLIER HAVE ALSO SHOWN MANY NEW CHARACTERISTICS, AND THE GAME BETWEEN THE THREE TRENDS HAS BECOME MORE INTENSE.(1) THE GLOBAL 'NEW TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION TREND' AND ITS GAME WITH CERTAIN 'TECHNOLOGICAL BARRIERS'FIRSTLY, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND INDUSTRY ARE THREE INTERRELATED BUT DISTINCT CONCEPTS, WITH BOTH CONTINUITY AND PROGRESSION (USUALLY EVOLVING ALONG THE CHAIN FROM SCIENCE TO TECHNOLOGY TO INDUSTRY). FROM THE RESPECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HISTORIES OF MODERN SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND INDUSTRY, IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THERE WERE FOUR SCIENTIFIC REVOLUTIONS: NEWTONIAN MECHANICS (18TH CENTURY) - ELECTROMAGNETIC MECHANICS (19TH CENTURY) - QUANTUM MECHANICS (20TH CENTURY) - INTELLIGENT SCIENCE (21ST CENTURY); FOUR TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS: STEAM TECHNOLOGY (18TH CENTURY) - ELECTRICAL TECHNOLOGY (19TH CENTURY) - INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (20TH CENTURY) - INTELLIGENT TECHNOLOGY (21ST CENTURY); THE FOUR INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTIONS: STEAMING INDUSTRY (18TH CENTURY) - ELECTRIFICATION INDUSTRY (19TH CENTURY) - INFORMATION INDUSTRY (20TH CENTURY) - INTELLIGENT INDUSTRY (21ST CENTURY). [2]BASED ON THE ABOVE CHAIN, THE AUTHOR POINTED OUT IN "RESEARCH ON THE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE WORLD'S THREE MAJOR TRENDS AND CHINA'S MIXED OWNERSHIP ECONOMY FROM A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE" THAT "SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE 21ST CENTURY, THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION, KNOWN AS THE 'NEW WAVE', HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY, ESPECIALLY IN THE FIELD OF INFORMATION REVOLUTION. THE 'VANGUARD' OF HUMAN SOCIETY IS MOVING FROM INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY TO INFORMATION SOCIETY, INCLUDING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES SUCH AS' CLOUD COMPUTING 'AND' E-WORLD ', WHICH ARE EXPLODING AT AN EXTRAORDINARY SPEED. THE MAINLAND TECHNOLOGY COMMUNITY GENERALLY SUMMARIZES THIS TREND INTO FIVE WORDS:' CLOUD '(CLOUD COMPUTING),' THINGS' (INTERNET OF THINGS), 'MOBILE' (MOBILE INTERNET), 'BIG' (BIG DATA), 'INTELLIGENCE' (INTELLIGENCE). AT THE SAME TIME, THERE IS ALSO A REVOLUTION UNDERWAY IN THE FIELDS OF BIOTECHNOLOGY AND QUANTUM TECHNOLOGY. [3]SINCE THE ABOVE ANALYSIS WAS MADE IN 2017, THE TREND OF A LARGER GLOBAL NEW TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION HAS SURGED, BECOMING A HIGHLIGHT FOR OBSERVING THE WORLD TREND. IN THE REPORT "TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WORLD SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FRONTIERS", AUTHORITATIVE EXPERTS IN THE CHINESE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY DISCUSSED THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FRONTIERS FROM THREE LEVELS: MACRO, MICRO, AND MESO, NAMELY: (1) EXPANDING TO THE MACRO LEVEL: "TRACING THE FOOTSTEPS OF THE ORIGIN AND EVOLUTION OF THE UNIVERSE", INCLUDING BLACK HOLE RESEARCH - OPENING UP NEW PERSPECTIVES ON THE ORIGIN OF THE UNIVERSE AND CELESTIAL BODIES. (2) EXPLORING THE ULTIMATE MYSTERIES OF THE MATERIAL WORLD AND LIFE, INCLUDING QUANTUM CONTROL BECOMING AN IMPORTANT FRONTIER IN CURRENT MATERIAL SCIENCE AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY. (3) AT THE MESO LEVEL, IT INCLUDES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY BECOMING THE LEADING FORCE FOR PROFOUND CHANGES IN THE ECONOMY, SOCIETY, AND LIFE. [4]BASED ON THE AUTHORITATIVE SUMMARY IN THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY, THE AUTHOR PAYS SPECIAL ATTENTION TO SEVERAL FIELDS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CURRENT WORLD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: (1) THE FIELD OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY - THE NEW GENERATION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY CENTERED ON "CHIPS" AND COMPONENTS, COMPUTING POWER, AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY IS AT AN IMPORTANT BREAKTHROUGH POINT; (2) BREAKTHROUGHS HAVE BEEN MADE IN THE FIELDS OF LIFE SCIENCES, INCLUDING GENOMICS, SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY, NEUROSCIENCE, AND STEM CELLS; (3) THE FIELD OF NEW ENERGY - RENEWABLE ENERGY, LARGE-SCALE ENERGY STORAGE, POWER BATTERIES, SMART GRIDS, ETC. HAVE BECOME IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENT DIRECTIONS; (4) IN PARTICULAR, THE DIGITAL ECONOMY AND QUANTUM INFORMATION REPRESENTED BY "INTERNET PLUS" AND "SMART+" ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY WITH THEIR OVERWHELMING POWER. THE ABOVE NOT ONLY CHANGE THE PATTERN OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, BUT ALSO ALTER VARIOUS ECONOMIC STRUCTURES, CAUSING PROFOUND AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE, FACTOR INPUT STRUCTURE, AND EVEN OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE. [5]SPEAKING OF THIS, THE AUTHOR CANNOT HELP BUT RECALL A FAMOUS QUOTE FROM SCIENTIST PASTEUR IN THE HISTORY OF TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT (1876): "I HAVE TWO PROFOUND IMPRESSIONS. FIRST, SCIENCE KNOWS NO BORDERS. SECOND, IT SEEMS CONTRADICTORY TO THE FIRST, BUT IT IS A DIRECT REFLECTION OF THE FIRST POINT, WHICH IS THAT SCIENCE IS THE HIGHEST EMBODIMENT OF A COUNTRY'S PERSONALITY." [6] PASTEUR'S "SCIENCE KNOWS NO BORDERS" IS GLOBAL AND VISIONARY, BECAUSE "KNOWLEDGE BELONGS TO HUMANITY AND IS THE TORCH THAT ILLUMINATES THE WORLD." [7]. AS FOR 'SCIENCE IS THE HIGHEST PERSONIFICATION OF A COUNTRY', IT IS ALSO A PROFOUND AND PROFOUND IDEA, BECAUSE 'THIS COUNTRY WILL ALWAYS BE THE FIRST TO SPREAD THE FRUITS OF THOUGHT AND INTELLIGENCE THE FARTHEST'. AS A SCIENTIST WHO HAS CONTRIBUTED INNOVATIVE ACHIEVEMENTS, I FIRMLY BELIEVE THAT I HAVE OBTAINED THE TRUTH, WHICH IS ONE OF THE ****** JOYS THAT HUMANS CAN ENJOY.UNFORTUNATELY, IN TODAY'S WORLD, WHILE THE TREND OF "NEW TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION" IS SURGING, THE AUTHOR ALSO NOTICED THAT THERE IS ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT DEVIATES FROM "SCIENCE KNOWS NO BORDERS" AND "SCIENCE IS THE HIGHEST PERSONIFICATION OF A COUNTRY": A "TECHNOLOGICAL BARRIER" PHENOMENON SIMILAR TO THE "BERLIN WALL OF SCIENCE". FOR EXAMPLE, IT IS WELL KNOWN THAT HUAWEI, A HIGH-TECH PRIVATE ENTERPRISE IN CHINA, HAS FACED SOME KIND OF OBSTRUCTION OVERSEAS. THE EMERGENCE OF THIS PHENOMENON IS VERY COMPLEX: IT IS DUE TO CONSIDERATIONS OF THE NATIONAL INTERESTS OR SECURITY OF THE COUNTRIES INVOLVED, AS WELL AS A REFLECTION OF INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION REACHING A "WHITE HOT" LEVEL. HOWEVER, IN ANY CASE, THIS "TECHNOLOGICAL BARRIER" THAT APPEARS TO "MONOPOLIZE" A CERTAIN HIGH-TECH PRODUCT MARKET IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE "NEW TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION TREND". WHAT IS EVEN MORE WORRYING IS THAT IN THE FUTURE, AS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BECOME INCREASINGLY ADVANCED AND COMPLEX, AND RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT COSTS BECOME MORE EXPENSIVE, WILL THE "THRESHOLD" FOR WORLD TECHNOLOGY BECOME HIGHER AND HIGHER, UNTIL IT BECOMES A "WALL"? OF COURSE, COMPARED TO THE SURGING TREND OF THE GLOBAL "NEW TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION", "TECHNOLOGICAL BARRIERS" ARE JUST A TRIBUTARY, BUT THE GAME BETWEEN THEM IS WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO.(2) THE TREND OF "ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION" IN THE WORLD AND ITS GAME WITH "ANTI GLOBALIZATION" [10]FROM A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE, IN ADDITION TO THE SURGING TREND OF THE GLOBAL "NEW TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION" AND ITS GAME WITH CERTAIN "TECHNOLOGICAL BARRIERS", THERE IS ALSO THE WAVE OF ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION AND THE CHALLENGES OF "ANTI GLOBALIZATION" CURRENTLY ENCOUNTERED, AS WELL AS THEIR GAME WITH EACH OTHER. THIS TREND OF "ANTI GLOBALIZATION" DID NOT START WITH US PRESIDENT TRUMP. IN FACT, WITH THE OUTBREAK OF THE US FINANCIAL CRISIS AND THE DECLINE OF THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY AFTER 2009, TRADE PROTECTIONISM HAS ALREADY BEEN TRIGGERED IN THE SECOND DECADE OF THE 21ST CENTURY. AFTER TRUMP TOOK OFFICE, HE ONLY INTENSIFIED THE "ANTI GLOBALIZATION" TREND, OR RATHER FUELED IT.AT THE SAME TIME, EUROPE HAS ALSO SHOWN SIGNS OF ADOPTING FREQUENT ANTI-DUMPING AND OTHER TRADE RESTRICTION MEASURES, LEADING TO A WAVE OF TRADE PROTECTIONISM KNOWN AS "ANTI GLOBALIZATION" (OR "DE GLOBALIZATION") IN EUROPE AND AMERICA. WILL THE NEW US PRESIDENT CHANGE COURSE AFTER TAKING OFFICE IN 2021? IS IT 'GLOBALIZATION' OR 'ANTI GLOBALIZATION'? THE WORLD IS WORTH OBSERVING.FROM THE BASIC TREND OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION DEVELOPMENT, THE WAVE OF GLOBALIZATION (AT LEAST "SUB GLOBALIZATION") IS UNSTOPPABLE. LIKE MOST COMMENTATORS, THE AUTHOR ADVOCATES PROMOTING FREE TRADE AND AVOIDING DISGUISED PROTECTIONISM; WE SHOULD PROMOTE OPEN COOPERATION AND NOT HINDER THE SMOOTH FLOW OF THE INDUSTRIAL CHAIN AND VALUE CHAIN. THIS IS THE TREND OF THE TIMES AND THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE. 'THE RIGHT PATH IN THE WORLD IS THE VICISSITUDES OF LIFE'.THE TREND OF THE CHINESE ECONOMY IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT "GLOBALIZATION HAS NOT ENDED", AND OF COURSE, ATTENTION SHOULD ALSO BE PAID TO "ANTI GLOBALIZATION" TENDENCIES SUCH AS "DISGUISED PROTECTIONISM". AS THE SAYING GOES, 'THE WIND AND THE THINGS ARE LONG AND EASY TO OBSERVE.' THE GAME IS ABOUT IT.(3) THE RISE OF WORLD HUMANISM AND ITS GAME WITH POPULISMFROM A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE, IN ADDITION TO THE TWO MAJOR TRENDS AND THEIR GAMES MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE IS ALSO A NEW TREND - THE TREND OF HUMAN SELF-DEVELOPMENT AND ITS GAME WITH POPULISM.IN 2009, THE AUTHOR PUBLISHED A LENGTHY PAPER TITLED "THEORETICAL EXPLORATION OF CHINA'S NEXT 30 YEARS OF REFORM: REFLECTIONS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF 'HUMANISTIC SYSTEM THEORY'" IN THE JOURNAL OF SHANGHAI UNIVERSITY SOCIAL SCIENCES. THE PAPER POINTED OUT THAT THE ESSENCE OF CHINA'S REFORM LIES IN THE COMPREHENSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF HUMAN LIBERATION AND FREEDOM. THE MEANING OF 'HUMAN' SHOULD BE ACCURATELY GRASPED FROM THREE LEVELS: HORIZONTAL, VERTICAL, AND CORE. THE 'HUMANISTIC TOOL THEORY' SHOULD BE ABANDONED, AND THE 'HUMANISTIC SUBSTANCE THEORY' SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED, GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM 'INCOMPLETE AND BASIC HUMANISTIC' TO 'COMPREHENSIVE AND HIGH-END HUMANISTIC'. [11] COINCIDENTALLY, IN 2010, THE UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME (UNDP) ALSO PROPOSED THAT THE MODERN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MODEL MUST SHIFT FROM MATERIAL WEALTH GROWTH TO HUMAN NEEDS, AND THE PURPOSE OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IS TO MEET AND ACHIEVE HUMAN DEVELOPMENT. [12] IT SHOULD BE SAID THAT THIS IS AN INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS. BECAUSE AS EARLY AS 1983, PERO PROPOSED THAT COMPREHENSIVE HUMAN DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE THE FUNDAMENTAL GOAL OF DEVELOPMENT.HUMANISM IS A POSITIVE TREND, BUT IT IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY TWO TENDENCIES: ONE IS AUTHORITARIANISM, AND THE OTHER IS POPULISM. THE AUTHOR ONCE RAISED THE ISSUE OF THE GAME BETWEEN HUMANISM AND THE COMBINATION OF THE POWERFUL AND POPULISM IN THE BOOK "HUMANISTIC SYSTEM THEORY". THE SIXTH ARTICLE OF "A THEORY OF HUMANISTIC SYSTEMS", "SOCIAL SYSTEM ARRANGEMENTS GUIDED BY HUMANISM", POINTS OUT THAT THE REASON WHY THE BOOK TALKS ABOUT "HUMANISM" IS TWOFOLD: FIRSTLY, IT TARGETS THE "POWERFUL AND PRIVILEGED", AND SECONDLY, IT TARGETS THE "POPULISM". WHETHER IT IS THE "POWERFUL" OR THE "POPULISM", THEY ARE ALL DISADVANTAGEOUS TO THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PEOPLE.THE HISTORY AND REALITY OF WORLD DEVELOPMENT SHOW HOW VARIOUS VESTED INTEREST GROUPS HINDER SOCIAL CHANGE AND HUMAN PROGRESS, AND PEOPLE ARE FAMILIAR WITH THIS AUTHORITARIANISM. RELATIVELY SPEAKING, THE UNDERSTANDING OF POPULISM IS RELATIVELY VAGUE. POPULISM WAS ORIGINALLY A SOCIAL TREND THAT EMERGED IN 19TH CENTURY RUSSIA. ALTHOUGH THEY VERBALLY REFERRED TO THE "PEOPLE," THEY FUNDAMENTALLY WENT AGAINST THE WILL OF THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PEOPLE. FOR EXAMPLE, THEY IDEALIZED THE VILLAGE SYSTEM AND PEASANTS THAT EXISTED IN RUSSIA AT THAT TIME, WHICH WAS DEEPLY CRITICIZED BY RUSSIAN SOCIAL DEMOCRATS REPRESENTED BY LENIN. SINCE THE 1980S, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 1990S, POPULISM HAS ONCE AGAIN EMERGED IN BOTH THE EASTERN AND WESTERN HEMISPHERES, FORMING AN INTERNATIONAL TREND OF THOUGHT. CURRENTLY, HUMANITY IS FACING BOTH A POSITIVE TREND OF HUMANISM AND A NEGATIVE TREND OF POPULISM (OR AS AMERICAN SCHOLAR JOSEPH NYE PUT IT, "WITH POPULIST UNDERTONES"). IS THERE ANY SHADOW OF POPULISM, SUCH AS THE "CONGRESS SHOCK" IN THE UNITED STATES IN 2021?.THROUGH THE ABOVE ANALYSIS OF THE THREE MAJOR GLOBAL TRENDS AND THEIR GAMES, IT CAN BE SEEN THAT AFTER CHINA ENTERED A NEW STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT, THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT HAS UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WE HAVE ENCOUNTERED A COMPLEX SITUATION THAT WE HAVE NEVER ENCOUNTERED BEFORE, BUT THE TREND OF THE WORLD'S NEW TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION HAS NOT STOPPED, THE TREND OF ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION HAS NOT ENDED, AND THE POSITIVE TREND OF HUMANISM IS STILL THE "RIGHT PATH ON EARTH". IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS SITUATION, STUDY HOW CHINA IMPLEMENTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF PEOPLE'S WEALTH, FACTOR BASED REFORMS, AND INSTITUTIONAL OPENNESS. ■