THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKET IS NOT CALM.UNDER THE FRENZY OF INTEREST RATE HIKES, THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKET HAS UNDERGONE TREMENDOUS CHANGES. AMONG THEM, THE BOND MARKET HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY SEVERELY IMPACTED, WITH THE BLOOMBERG GLOBAL COMPOSITE INDEX, WHICH TRACKS TOTAL RETURNS ON GOVERNMENT AND CORPORATE BONDS, CONTINUING TO DECLINE. COMPARED TO ITS PEAK IN 2021, IT HAS ACCUMULATED A DECLINE OF OVER 20%, MARKING THE LARGEST DECLINE SINCE ITS ESTABLISHMENT IN 1990 AND ENTERING A BEAR MARKET. WALL STREET INSTITUTIONS BELIEVE THAT THE 40 YEAR GLOBAL BOND BULL MARKET HAS OFFICIALLY COME TO AN END.IN ADDITION TO BONDS, OTHER FINANCIAL ASSETS HAVE ALSO EXPERIENCED A WAVE OF SELLING. ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG MARKET INDEX, MAJOR GLOBAL FINANCIAL ASSETS FELL ACROSS THE BOARD IN AUGUST THIS YEAR, AND CROSS ASSET INVESTORS EXPERIENCED THEIR WORST MONTH SINCE 1981. IN THE FACE OF THIS STORM, JEREMY GRANTHAM, A FAMOUS VALUE INVESTMENT MASTER AND CO FOUNDER AND CHIEF STRATEGIST OF ASSET MANAGEMENT COMPANY GMO, WARNED IN THE LATEST REPORT THAT THE "SUPER FOAM" OF US STOCKS AND OTHER ASSETS SEEMS TO BE ENTERING THE FINAL STAGE BEFORE THE COLLAPSE, AND AN EPIC COLLAPSE IS COMING.AT A CRITICAL MOMENT, THE LATEST EMPLOYMENT DATA FROM THE UNITED STATES HAS BEEN RELEASED. ON THE EVENING OF SEPTEMBER 2ND, THE US DEPARTMENT OF LABOR DISCLOSED THAT THE NUMBER OF NON FARM PAYROLL WORKERS IN THE UNITED STATES INCREASED BY 315000 IN AUGUST, EXCEEDING MARKET EXPECTATIONS OF 300000. THE US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RECORDED 3.7% IN AUGUST, THE FIRST INCREASE IN SEVEN MONTHS AND HIGHER THAN THE EXPECTED 3.5%. AMONG THEM, THE NUMBER OF NON FARM PAYROLLS HAS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FIFTH CONSECUTIVE MONTH, INDICATING TO SOME EXTENT THAT THE US ECONOMY IS STILL HOT. THEREFORE, WALL STREET IS CONCERNED THAT THE PACE OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S INTEREST RATE HIKE MAY NOT STOP, AND THE SEPTEMBER INTEREST RATE MEETING MAY RAISE INTEREST RATES BY ANOTHER 75 BASIS POINTS. ON THE DAY OF THE US STOCK MARKET CLOSING, THE THREE MAJOR INDEXES COLLECTIVELY FELL AGAIN, WITH THE NASDAQ FALLING 1.31%, MARKING THE FIRST CONSECUTIVE SIX TRADING DAYS OF DECLINE SINCE EARLY AUGUST 2019.THE END OF A 40 YEAR BULL MARKETTHE INTEREST RATE HIKE FRENZY LED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE IN WESTERN CENTRAL BANKS HAS TRIGGERED A SUPER STORM IN GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS.AMONG THEM, THE GLOBAL BOND MARKET IS AT THE FOREFRONT, WITH THE BLOOMBERG GLOBAL AGGREGATE INDEX, WHICH TRACKS TOTAL RETURNS ON GOVERNMENT BONDS AND INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATE BONDS, CONTINUING TO DECLINE. COMPARED TO ITS PEAK IN 2021, THE INDEX'S CUMULATIVE DECLINE HAS EXCEEDED 20%, MARKING THE LARGEST DECLINE SINCE ITS ESTABLISHMENT IN 1990 AND ENTERING A BEAR MARKET.ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG, WALL STREET INSIDERS HAVE POINTED OUT THAT THE 40 YEAR GLOBAL BOND BULL MARKET HAS OFFICIALLY COME TO AN END.IN THE PAST AUGUST, THE BOND MARKETS IN THE UK AND GERMANY WERE PARTICULARLY VOLATILE. AMONG THEM, THE YIELD OF TWO-YEAR TREASURY BOND OF THE UK AND GERMANY, WHICH ARE MOST SENSITIVE TO MONETARY POLICY, BOTH RECORDED THE HIGHEST MONTHLY GROWTH, AND THE PRICE OF TREASURY BOND CONTINUED TO DECLINE SIGNIFICANTLY.ACCORDING TO THE LATEST DATA RELEASED BY EUROPE, THE INFLATION RATE IN THE EUROZONE ROSE TO 9.1% IN AUGUST, SETTING A NEW HISTORICAL HIGH AND EXCEEDING MARKET EXPECTATIONS. AFTER THE DATA WAS DISCLOSED, THE MARKET ISSUED A DIRECT WARNING THAT THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK WOULD RAISE INTEREST RATES BY ANOTHER 50 BASIS POINTS IN SEPTEMBER, FURTHER SUPPRESSING THE GLOBAL BOND MARKET.EVEN MORE RARE IS THAT THE GLOBAL STOCK MARKET IS FALLING ALONG WITH THE BOND MARKET, WITH THE MSCI GLOBAL STOCK INDEX EXPERIENCING A CUMULATIVE DECLINE OF 16%, AND MORGAN STANLEY CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL'S GLOBAL STOCK INDEX EXPERIENCING EVEN GREATER DECLINES. THIS SITUATION HAS MADE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR INVESTORS IN GLOBAL CROSS ASSET ALLOCATION.SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR, THE 60/40 INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO, WHICH IS ONE OF THE CLASSIC STRATEGIES IN THE US INVESTMENT INDUSTRY (WITH 60% OF FUNDS INVESTED IN THE STOCK MARKET AND 40% IN BONDS), HAS CUMULATIVELY FALLEN BY 15%, POSSIBLY THE MOST SEVERE ANNUAL LOSS SINCE 2008.AT THIS POINT, THE CRISIS IN THE GLOBAL BOND MARKET MAY STILL BE ONGOING. FIRSTLY, FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN POWELL HAS ISSUED A STRONG WARNING THAT POLICY WILL NOT BE RELAXED PREMATURELY. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IN THE US MARKET IS THAT THE PROBABILITY OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE RAISING INTEREST RATES BY 75 BASIS POINTS AT ITS SEPTEMBER MEETING HAS RISEN TO 70%.THE MINGMING TEAM OF CITIC SECURITIES BELIEVES THAT IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF A SPIRAL OF RISING WAGES AND INFLATION IN THE UNITED STATES. IF THE NON FARM EMPLOYMENT DATA AND INFLATION DATA FURTHER VALIDATE THIS VIEW, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE WILL RAISE INTEREST RATES BY 75 BASIS POINTS IN SEPTEMBER, AND THE TEN-YEAR US TREASURY BOND RATE MAY FURTHER RISE AS A RESULT.MEANWHILE, OTHER CENTRAL BANK GOVERNORS IN EUROPE, SOUTH KOREA, AND NEW ZEALAND HAVE WARNED THAT INTEREST RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE.IN ADDITION TO RAISING INTEREST RATES, KOZO KOIDE, CHIEF ECONOMIST OF ONE CO., AN ASSET MANAGEMENT COMPANY BASED IN TOKYO, WARNED THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS ACCELERATING THE REDUCTION OF ITS BALANCE SHEET, WHICH WILL ALSO ADD MORE DOWNWARD PRESSURE TO BOND PRICES.WARNING OF A STOCK MARKET CRASH IN THE UNITED STATESIN THE PAST AUGUST, GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS HAVE EXPERIENCED A WAVE OF SELLING. ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG MARKET INDEX, MAJOR GLOBAL FINANCIAL ASSETS FELL ACROSS THE BOARD IN AUGUST THIS YEAR, AND CROSS ASSET INVESTORS EXPERIENCED THEIR WORST MONTH SINCE 1981.IN THE FACE OF THIS STORM, JEREMY GRANTHAM, A FAMOUS VALUE INVESTMENT MASTER AND CO FOUNDER AND CHIEF STRATEGIST OF THE ASSET MANAGEMENT COMPANY GMO, WARNED IN THE LATEST REPORT THAT THE "SUPER FOAM" OF US STOCKS AND OTHER ASSETS SEEMS TO BE ENTERING THE FINAL STAGE BEFORE THE COLLAPSE, AND AN EPIC COLLAPSE IS IMMINENT.GRANTHAM BELIEVES THAT THE SUMMER REBOUND OF US STOCKS IS IN LINE WITH THE STAGE OF BEAR MARKET REBOUND IN THE "SUPER FOAM", AND THE NEXT STEP WILL USHER IN THE COMPLETE COLLAPSE OF THE FOAM.AFTER THIS REPORT WAS ISSUED, IT CAUSED HEATED DISCUSSION ON WALL STREET, BECAUSE GRANTHAM WAS A WELL-KNOWN FINANCIAL MARKET FOAM RESEARCH EXPERT ON WALL STREET, WHO SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED THE STOCK MARKET CRASH OF JAPAN IN 1989, THE FOAM CRASH OF INTERNET STOCKS IN 2000, AND THE SUBPRIME MORTGAGE CRISIS IN 2008.IN FACT, SINCE FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN POWELL MADE THE "STRONGEST EAGLE" STATEMENT AT THE JACKSON HOLE CONFERENCE, THE US STOCK MARKET HAS CONTINUED TO DECLINE, AND THE S&P 500 INDEX HAS ONCE AGAIN FALLEN BELOW THE IMPORTANT 4000 POINT MARK, WITH A DECLINE OF OVER 17.6% SO FAR THIS YEAR; THE NASDAQ INDEX HAS EXPERIENCED ITS WORST PERFORMANCE SINCE AUGUST 2019, FALLING FOR SIX CONSECUTIVE TRADING DAYS AND DROPPING 26.7% FOR THE YEAR.GRANTHAM FURTHER WARNED IN THE REPORT THAT THE CURRENT "SUPER FOAM" IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE SIMULTANEOUS CRISIS OF MULTIPLE ASSET CATEGORIES. THE BOND MARKET, THE HOUSING MARKET AND THE STOCK MARKET HAVE ALL BEEN SERIOUSLY OVERESTIMATED, AND ARE RAPIDLY LOSING THE MOMENTUM OF GROWTH. THE IMPACT OF COMMODITIES CONTINUES TO EXIST, AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS BUZZING WITH "HAWKS". EVERY CYCLE IS DIFFERENT AND UNIQUE - BUT EVERY SIMILAR HISTORICAL PHENOMENON SHOWS THAT THE WORST IS YET TO COME.GRANTHAM BELIEVES THAT AT PRESENT, THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE US ECONOMY HAVE BEGUN TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT AN ASTONISHING RATE. MANY NEGATIVE FACTORS COEXIST, SUCH AS THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT, THE FOOD AND ENERGY CRISIS, THE RECORD FISCAL TIGHTENING AND SO ON. THE OUTLOOK FOR US STOCKS IS MORE GRIM THAN IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR. IN THE LONG RUN, WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT FOOD AND RESOURCE SHORTAGES POSE A THREAT, AND ACCELERATED CLIMATE DESTRUCTION EXACERBATES THE SITUATION.AT THE SAME TIME, WALL STREET STRATEGIST AND MORGAN STANLEY'S MICHAEL WILSON ALSO ISSUED A WARNING THAT INVESTORS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE WORST, AS THE US STOCK MARKET HAS NOT YET HIT BOTTOM. IF THERE IS A SOFT LANDING OR GROWTH RECESSION IN THE US ECONOMY, THE LOW POINT OF THE S&P 500 INDEX WILL BE 3400 POINTS, WITH A POTENTIAL DECLINE OF 14%, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN HIT A NEW LOW.WILSON SAID THAT THE MAIN REASON FOR THE PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK ON THE US STOCK MARKET IS THAT THE TREND OF OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS OF US LISTED COMPANIES IS WORSE THAN EXPECTED, AND THE MARKET BOTTOM MAY OCCUR BETWEEN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER THIS YEAR.ERIN BROWNE, A MULTI ASSET STRATEGY PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT PIMCO, ALSO BELIEVES THAT FROM NOW UNTIL THE FIRST HALF OF 2023, AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE RAISES INTEREST RATES AND WEAK CONSUMER SPENDING SQUEEZES CORPORATE PROFITS, THE US STOCK MARKET WILL FACE A DIFFICULT PERIOD.A KEY PIECE OF DATA HAS BEEN RELEASEDON THE EVENING OF SEPTEMBER 2ND BEIJING TIME, THE US DEPARTMENT OF LABOR RELEASED NON FARM PAYROLL DATA FOR AUGUST, SHOWING THAT THE NUMBER OF NON FARM JOBS IN THE UNITED STATES INCREASED BY 315000, THE SMALLEST INCREASE SINCE APRIL 2021, BUT STILL EXCEEDING MARKET EXPECTATIONS OF 300000; THE US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ROSE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVEN MONTHS IN AUGUST, REACHING 3.7%, HIGHER THAN THE EXPECTED 3.5%; THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE WAS 62.4%, HIGHER THAN THE MARKET EXPECTATION OF 62.2%, AND THE PREVIOUS VALUE WAS 62.1%.AMONG THEM, THE NUMBER OF NON FARM EMPLOYMENT ADDITIONS HAS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FIFTH CONSECUTIVE MONTH, INDICATING TO SOME EXTENT THAT THE HEAT OF THE US ECONOMY STILL EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS. THEREFORE, WALL STREET IS CONCERNED THAT THE PACE OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S INTEREST RATE HIKES MAY NOT STOP.IN ADDITION, THE US BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS STATED THAT THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN EMPLOYMENT IN AUGUST WAS MAINLY IN PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES, HEALTHCARE, AND RETAIL TRADE, WITH 68000, 48000, AND 44000 NEW JOBS ADDED, RESPECTIVELY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY ADDED 22000 NEW JOBS IN AUGUST; 17000 NEW JOBS WERE CREATED IN THE FINANCIAL INDUSTRY; WHOLESALE TRADE HAS ADDED 15000 NEW JOBS, RETURNING TO PRE PANDEMIC LEVELS.IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE RECENTLY RELEASED NON FARM PAYROLL REPORT IS THE LAST US EMPLOYMENT DATA BEFORE THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S SEPTEMBER DECISION, SO WALL STREET ATTACHES MUCH GREATER IMPORTANCE TO THIS REPORT THAN USUAL. ON THE EVE OF THE RELEASE OF THE NON FARM PAYROLL REPORT, THE US STOCK MARKET SUFFERED CONSECUTIVE HEAVY LOSSES, AND THE NASDAQ FELL FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS.AFTER THE RELEASE OF THIS KEY DATA, ALTHOUGH THE MARKET'S BET ON THE FED RAISING INTEREST RATES HAS DECREASED, THE FED'S SWAPS SHOW THAT THE MARKET PRICED THE FED'S TERMINAL RATE TO 3.91%. BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE RAISING INTEREST RATES BY 75 BASIS POINTS IN SEPTEMBER IS STILL CLOSE TO 50%. ON THE DAY OF THE US STOCK MARKET CLOSING, THE THREE MAJOR INDEXES COLLECTIVELY FELL AGAIN, WITH THE NASDAQ FALLING 1.31%, MARKING THE FIRST CONSECUTIVE SIX TRADING DAYS OF DECLINE SINCE EARLY AUGUST 2019.OBVIOUSLY, THIS MIXED REPORT ON NON FARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT CANNOT SHAKE THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S DETERMINATION TO CONTINUE RAISING INTEREST RATES. CURRENTLY, FEDERAL FUND FUTURES TRADERS STILL EXPECT THAT MARKET DEMAND FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE SEEMS TO REMAIN STRONG, AND THE PROBABILITY OF THE FED RAISING INTEREST RATES BY 75 BASIS POINTS IN SEPTEMBER IS STILL HIGH.KPMG AND BANK OF AMERICA BOTH BELIEVE THAT ALTHOUGH THE US JOB MARKET HAS MAINTAINED A STRONG TREND SO FAR, WITH THE IMPACT OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S TIGHTENING POLICIES ON THE LABOR MARKET, THE JOB MARKET MAY BE AT A TURNING POINT OF COOLING, AND MONTHLY NEW EMPLOYMENT DATA WILL BEGIN TO SHOW NEGATIVE VALUES AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT YEAR.SPECIAL STATEMENT: THE CONTENT OF THE ABOVE WORKS (INCLUDING VIDEOS, IMAGES, OR AUDIO) IS UPLOADED AND PUBLISHED BY USERS OF THE SELF MEDIA PLATFORM "DA FENG HAO" UNDER PHOENIX NETWORK. THIS PLATFORM ONLY PROVIDES INFORMATION STORAGE SPACE SERVICES.NOTICE: THE CONTENT ABOVE (INCLUDING THE VIDEOS, PICTURES AND AUDIOS IF ANY) IS UPLOADED AND POSTED BY THE USER OF DAFENG HAO, WHICH IS A SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORM AND MERELY PROVIDES INFORMATION STORAGE SPACE SERVICES.”