FOR THE UNITED STATES, THE MOST HEADACHE INDUCING THING THESE DAYS IS THAT CHINA INTERVENED AND SAUDI ARABIA AND IRAN ACTUALLY RECONCILED. WHICH SIDE DOES THIS MAKE THE UNITED STATES FACE?LOOKING AT THE REACTIONS FROM ALL SIDES, THE UNITED NATIONS APPRECIATES IT, THE EUROPEAN UNION WELCOMES IT, AND ALL COUNTRIES ARE HAPPY. ONLY THE UNITED STATES IS NOT HESITANT, REPEATEDLY EMPHASIZING THAT US DETERRENCE HAS ALSO PLAYED A ROLE.THE SECOND ONE IS THE BANKRUPTCY OF SILICON VALLEY BANK. IN THE UNITED STATES, SILICON VALLEY BANK RANKS APPROXIMATELY 18TH WITH APPROXIMATELY $200 BILLION IN DEPOSITS AND IS A MAJOR BANK FOR MANY AMERICAN STARTUPS.ROUGHLY EQUIVALENT TO THE RANKING OF GUANGFA BANK IN CHINA, CAN YOU IMAGINE GUANGFA GOING BANKRUPT OVERNIGHT AND UNABLE TO WITHDRAW ITS DEPOSITS? THE IMPOSSIBLE THING FOR GUANGFA, THE UNIMAGINABLE THING FOR CHINA, SUDDENLY HAPPENED IN THE UNITED STATES.THIS IS ALSO THE SECOND LARGEST BANK BANKRUPTCY EVENT IN US HISTORY AFTER THE 2008 WASHINGTON MUTUAL AID BANK COLLAPSE. THE BANKRUPTCY OF THAT YEAR OPENED THE PRELUDE TO THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISIS; IS THE BANKRUPTCY OF SILICON VALLEY BANK THE NEW LEHMAN MOMENT?GENERALLY, THE UNITED STATES EXPERIENCES A MAJOR CRISIS EVERY DECADE OR SO. IT HAS BEEN OVER 10 YEARS SINCE THE LAST INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISIS. IS THIS A NEW CYCLE?FINANCIAL MARKET EVENTS, NO MATTER HOW SMALL, ARE BIG THINGS, LET ALONE THE COLLAPSE OF LARGE BANKS. THE SITUATION IS STILL FERMENTING, WE MUST BE MORE CAREFUL, AT LEAST 5 CONSEQUENCES THAT CANNOT BE IGNORED.1. THE AFTERMATH OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S INTEREST RATE HIKE HAS ARRIVED.THE SILICON VALLEY BANK INCIDENT WAS CAUSED BY THE ALLOCATION OF LONG AND SHORT-TERM BONDS, BUT THE ROOT CAUSE WAS THE VIOLENT INTEREST RATE HIKES BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE. PREVIOUSLY, THE FEDERAL RESERVE RELEASED WATER, LEAVING SILICON VALLEY BANKS WITH NOWHERE TO GO, SO THEY BOUGHT A LARGE NUMBER OF TREASURY BOND BONDS AND MORTGAGE ASSETS; IF THE FEDERAL RESERVE AGGRESSIVELY RAISES INTEREST RATES, THEY WILL DEFINITELY LOSE MONEY. FOR LIQUIDITY, WE HAVE TO SELL AT A LOSS. IN THE END, HE CLOSED HIMSELF DOWN. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE MORE THAN JUST SILICON VALLEY BANK AMONG SIMILAR BANKS AND ENTERPRISES.2. SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED BANKS IN THE UNITED STATES ARE FACING A CRISIS.IT'S SIMPLE, NO BANK CAN WITHSTAND A RUN. SILICON VALLEY BANKS, RANKED 18TH IN THE LIST OF TRANSACTIONS, CAN SUDDENLY GO BANKRUPT. THE FRIGHTENED AMERICANS AND ENTERPRISES WILL SPEED UP THE TRANSFER OF ASSETS TO "TOO BIG TO FAIL" BIG BANKS. FOR SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED BANKS, RAISING INTEREST RATES IS ALREADY A DISASTER, AND A RUN IS AN EVEN GREATER DISASTER. YOU SEE, THERE MAY BE A WAVE OF SMALL BANK CLOSURES COMING UP NEXT.3. A SIGNIFICANT BLOW TO AMERICAN STARTUPS.BEFORE GOING BANKRUPT, SILICON VALLEY BANK'S SERVICES WERE STILL GOOD, OTHERWISE IT WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN LISTED AS ****** OR EVEN THE ONLY ACCOUNT OPENED BY MANY STARTUPS. THIS INCLUDES MANY CHINESE ENTERPRISES. NOW THAT THE BANK HAS GONE BANKRUPT AND MONEY CANNOT BE WITHDRAWN, THE UPPER LIMIT OF DEPOSIT INSURANCE IS $250000. MANY COMPANIES ARE FAR BEYOND THIS NUMBER. NOW, WITHOUT CASH FLOW AND UNABLE TO PAY SALARIES, THEY CAN ONLY LAY OFF EMPLOYEES OR EVEN GO BANKRUPT.4. IT WILL INEVITABLY IMPACT THE REAL ECONOMY OF THE UNITED STATES.BEHIND EVERY ENTERPRISE, THERE ARE MANY PEOPLE. THE INABILITY OF ENTERPRISES TO PAY SALARIES MEANS THAT EMPLOYEES DARE NOT CONSUME, WHICH MAY LEAD TO DEFAULT ON HOUSING LOANS, FOLLOWED BY VARIOUS DEFAULTS AND FINANCIAL TROUBLES. MOREOVER, WALL STREET'S VULTURES WILL NOT MISS THE OPPORTUNITY, AND A LARGE NUMBER OF LISTED COMPANIES AND BANKS WITH HIDDEN DANGERS WILL BE HUNTED DOWN. FINANCIAL TURBULENCE WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON THE US REAL ECONOMY.5. THE NEW LEHMAN MOMENT?FROM THE CURRENT PERSPECTIVE, IT SHOULD NOT HAVE REACHED THAT LEVEL YET, AND THE US GOVERNMENT IS ALSO OBSERVING AND EVALUATING. BUT DON'T FORGET, THE CAPITAL MARKET IS A MARKET OF CONFIDENCE. ONCE CONFIDENCE IS SHAKEN, IT WILL QUICKLY FORM A DOMINO EFFECT AND ULTIMATELY SHAKE THE EARTH. IF WE CANNOT CUT THROUGH THE CHAOS QUICKLY, THE CHILL WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARKET, AND IT WILL BE A COMPREHENSIVE CRISIS.NOW, THE FEDERAL RESERVE SHOULD BE LIKE AN OLD MOTHER PIG DRILLING THROUGH A FENCE - A DILEMMA: RAISING INTEREST RATES OR NOT RAISING THEM?WITHOUT RAISING INTEREST RATES, HIGH INFLATION CANNOT BE ALLEVIATED, WHICH WILL SEVERELY DAMAGE THE US ECONOMY. IN THE WORST CASE, IT WILL NOT ONLY BE AN ECONOMIC CRISIS, BUT ALSO A SOCIAL CRISIS; CONTINUING TO RAISE INTEREST RATES, THE AFTERMATH HAS ALREADY EMERGED, AND IT IS NOT RULED OUT THAT THERE MAY BE A BIGGER FINANCIAL STORM, AND EVEN THE LEHMAN MOMENT MAY EVENTUALLY OCCUR.THE US DOLLAR IS THE MAIN RESERVE CURRENCY IN THE WORLD. WHAT AMERICANS LIKE MOST IS TO PASS ON THE CRISIS THROUGH THE US DOLLAR AND CUT THE LEEKS AROUND THE WORLD.DURING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS, THROUGH QUANTITATIVE EASING MEASURES SUCH AS INTEREST RATE CUTS, THE PRINTING PRESS WAS ACTIVATED, AND THE US DOLLAR FLOWED OVERSEAS, ESSENTIALLY FORCING BORROWING MONEY. THIS WAS THE FIRST ROUND OF CUTTING LEEKS; AFTERWARDS, THE FEDERAL RESERVE WOULD RAISE INTEREST RATES, CAUSING A HUGE SIPHON EFFECT THAT LED TO THE BACKFLOW OF THE US DOLLAR, CAUSING OTHER COUNTRIES TO LOSE BLOOD AND EVEN FINANCIAL CRISES. THIS WAS THE SECOND ROUND OF CUTTING LEEKS.NO WONDER THE US TREASURY SECRETARY DURING THE NIXON ERA, CONNOLLY, ONCE PROUDLY SAID, "THE US DOLLAR IS OUR CURRENCY, BUT IT'S YOUR TROUBLECUTTING CHIVES FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD IS CERTAINLY ENJOYABLE; BUT I ACCIDENTALLY DISCOVERED THAT MY UNDERWEAR HAD ALSO FALLEN OFF, WHICH IS ALSO A FACT. VIOLENT INTEREST RATE HIKES IN THE UNITED STATES HAVE CAUSED PROBLEMS NOT JUST ONCE OR TWICE.HOW TO PUT IT?AS THE SAYING GOES: IN THIS WORLD, WHEN YOU COME OUT AND MESS AROUND, YOU ALWAYS HAVE TO PAY BACK.SILICON VALLEY BANK HAS COLLAPSED, AND MORE AMERICAN BANKS ARE IN FEAR. EVEN IF IT'S NOT THE LEHMAN ERA, AT LEAST THE UNITED STATES IS ON THE EVE OF A FINANCIAL SUPER STORM.THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH US, BUT WE SHOULD BE CAREFUL AND STILL BE MORE CAREFUL. AFTER ALL, FINANCE IS A MAJOR EVENT THAT AFFECTS THE WHOLE WORLD, SO PERHAPS THE MOST FAR-REACHING CHANGE IN OUR CURRENT INSTITUTIONAL REFORM IS THE REFORM OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM.LET THE BULLET FLY FOR A WHILE LONGER.